A combination forecast (CFC) is a bet, particularly common in horse and greyhound racing, where you make at least three selections. You’ll find out how to combine predictions with real examples and how many bets you actually place when you make such a combination.
Combination Forecast Betting Term Meaning
This type of bet is used in competitive events where participants finish in ranked positions, particularly in horse racing. With this wager, you choose three or more competitors, and you’re hoping that any two of them will finish 1st and 2nd in any order.
These stakes belong to a group of forecast bets, which includes:
- Straight forecast: Predict two competitors to finish in 1st and 2nd place in the exact order.
- Reverse forecast: Select two participants to finish 1st and 2nd in any order. It requires double the stake as it covers two straight forecasts.
A combination forecast is a series of bets on a straight forecast and, therefore, requires several wagers according to the number of picks made. Let’s look at how this type of bet works with a specific example.
How Does a Combination Forecast Bet Work?
If you want to place a CFC stake online, head to the Forecast tab in the race card. Choose the participants you wish to and use the ‘Any’ option.
For example, we’ll use one of the Market Rasen horse racing events. Let’s say you’ve picked It’s Hard To Know, Sunray Shadow, and Jungle Wood, creating a combination forecast with 3 selections.
A combination forecast bet covers all scenarios of these horses finishing 1st and 2nd, which gives us six possible outcomes:
- It’s Hard To Know 1st, Sunray Shadow 2nd
- It’s Hard To Know 1st, Jungle Wood 2nd
- Sunray Shadow 1st, It’s Hard To Know 2nd
- Sunray Shadow 1st, Jungle Wood 2nd
- Jungle Wood 1st, It’s Hard To Know 2nd
- Jungle Wood 1st, Sunray Shadow 2nd
If you bet £1 on this CFC, you’re wagering £1 on each outcome, for a total stake of £6 (£1 x 6). To win, one of the six options must match the actual race results.
You can add more selections, but this increases the number of bets. The formula to calculate this is Number of picks × (number of picks – 1).
For instance:
- With four choices: 4 × 3 = 12 bets.
- With five choices: 5 × 4 = 20 wagers.
Keep in mind that while more selections improve your chances, the total stake also increases.
Why Place Combination Forecast Bets
These stakes offer a balance of risk and reward. You can effectively hedge your bets if you choose three or more participants. It increases your chances of predicting the top two finishers compared to a straight forecast, where you must get both the order and the selections right.
This flexibility is especially useful in competitive races where predicting the outcome is harder. With a combination forecast, you cover multiple possible finishing orders, giving you more chances to win. While the total stake is higher because of more choices, the added coverage often makes it worthwhile.
You can place this bet if you’re confident in identifying strong contenders but uncertain of the exact order. You can also get better odds by combining selections than you would with single stakes. This can mean bigger payouts if you get a winning combination, especially when you choose participants with favourable odds.
How to Calculate Combination Forecast Odds
Unfortunately, there is no combination forecast calculator. Bookmakers use sophisticated algorithms to calculate CFC odds. These prices aren’t as straightforward as those for simple bets, as they depend on various factors such as the number of runners, individual horse odds and the overall competitiveness of the race. Sportsbooks wait to reveal the exact quotes for a CFC right away because the calculation involves complex models.
The odds are generated using a computer system that’s similar to the one used for straight forecasts. It’s called the Computer Straight Forecast (CSF) formula. However, combination forecasts are more complex. They don’t just multiply the odds of the selections like you often see with accumulators. Instead, they consider the likelihood of each possible finishing order among your choices.
This means that you can’t work out your own returns. That’s why it’s important to check the forecast dividend after the race to see what your potential winnings could be.
Combination Forecast Betting Strategy
We’ve put together a few tips for you to use when placing a combination forecast bet:
- Balance risk and returns: These bets work best in large races like the Grand National, where the higher number of selections with high odds can help balance the increased stake with better returns. The returns may not justify the higher risk involvedin smaller races with few favourites.
- Choose wisely: Focus on participants with a strong chance of finishing in the top two. Carefully analyse their recent form, race conditions, and other relevant factors to make well-informed choices.
- Prioritise quality over quantity: Since you’re placing multiple wagers, the odds of your selections need to be good enough to cover your stake. Adding more than three or four picks only makes sense if they offer good value and have a realistic chance of finishing in the top two.
- Manage your combination forecast bet: Understand the cost implications of your selections. The more horses you include, the more combos (and therefore bets) you’re making. For example, three picks result in six stakes, while six selections end up in thirty. Ensure that the potential returns justify the increased cost.
